[Research] 2026-08-30 JADISS research

The global semiconductor industry is currently at a new turning point, driven by the explosive growth of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and the demand for large-scale data center construction. The increasing need for high-performance AI chips is accelerating the growth of related markets, leading to an overall increase in semiconductor demand. However, some anticipate a temporary market pause, citing the possibility of short-term inventory adjustments or an economic slowdown. Simultaneously, geopolitical factors, such as the intensifying US-China technological rivalry, are prompting a reorganization of the global semiconductor supply chain, exerting complex effects across the industry.

These industrial changes are creating ripple effects throughout the entire semiconductor value chain. Particularly, the memory semiconductor market, centered on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is experiencing fierce technological competition, while in the foundry sector (semiconductor contract manufacturing), major companies are intensifying their race to secure advanced process technology. Furthermore, with the growing importance of advanced packaging technology, the role of the back-end processing industry is expanding, and related materials and equipment industries are also seeking co-growth through technological advancement and increased investment. National strategies for semiconductor self-sufficiency are leading to increased investment in specific regions, thereby promoting supply chain diversification.

Key checkpoints for the future of the semiconductor industry include the timing of demand recovery and the advent of a new investment cycle. The scale of government policies and subsidies to foster the semiconductor industry will be a crucial variable in corporate investment decisions. Meanwhile, examining the supply and demand trends of leading semiconductor stocks reveals net selling by foreign and institutional investors over the recent 5 trading days, but foreign net buying has been dominant over a 20-trading day period. This suggests the possibility of long-term buying interest even amidst short-term profit-taking. The short-selling ratio has slightly decreased compared to the 5-day average, yet it still indicates lingering market caution. Corporate shareholder return policies, such as decisions to acquire treasury shares, can act as positive signals to the market.

Looking at Samsung Electronics' technical indicators, the RSI 14 is at 58.72, not in an overbought/oversold zone, but it has shown a short-term adjustment trend with an decline over the recent 5 trading days. While the MACD maintains a positive value, the negative MACD signal suggests that upward momentum may be weakening. Although it is positioned above the Bollinger Band middle line (254,200 KRW), the distance to the upper band (284,375 KRW) indicates that further upward potential may be limited.

A positive outlook is maintained if AI-related demand across the semiconductor industry continues to strengthen, and major companies solidify their technological leadership and continue new investments.

Consider reducing exposure if global economic uncertainty intensifies, signs of a delayed semiconductor industry recovery emerge, or technological conflicts between major nations worsen, negatively impacting industry growth.