[Research] 2026-08-23 JADISS research

The semiconductor industry is currently undergoing an unprecedented period of change, driven by the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. In particular, with the explosive increase in demand for AI semiconductors, including High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), major memory manufacturers are aggressively investing in facilities to secure market leadership. This trend goes beyond simple production volume increases, focusing on next-generation technology development and capacity expansion, emerging as a key issue that raises overall industry growth expectations.

These large-scale investments are having ripple effects across the entire semiconductor value chain. The expansion race among memory manufacturers is benefiting downstream industries such as semiconductor equipment, materials, and components, acting as a growth engine for related companies. Furthermore, the increasing complexity of AI chips is further highlighting the importance of foundry technology, and competition for high-performance chip development, such as AI accelerators, is intensifying in the non-memory sector. Meanwhile, the efforts of the Chinese semiconductor industry towards self-sufficiency and technological catch-up are also acting as a new variable in the global competitive landscape, accelerating the overall industry restructuring.

Currently, the semiconductor market is showing a gradual recovery driven by AI demand, but concerns about major companies' aggressive capital expenditures potentially leading to future oversupply still exist. Looking at market supply and demand trends, foreign investors recorded large net purchases over the past five trading days, signaling a positive outlook, while institutions and individuals continued net selling, indicating differing perspectives. The short selling ratio has shown a decrease compared to the last five trading days, suggesting a possible short-term easing of selling pressure. This complex supply and demand situation can be interpreted as a process of finding a balance between the growth potential of the AI semiconductor market and supply risks.

Samsung Electronics' disclosures show recent announcements related to shareholder return policies, such as decisions on treasury stock acquisition, and regular submissions of reports on the ownership status of specific securities by executives and major shareholders. This information can be referenced to understand the company's autonomous management activities and insider trends.

Looking at Samsung Electronics' technical indicators, the RSI14 maintains a neutral level at 56.25, not in overbought/oversold territory. The MACD is above the signal line, forming positive momentum, but the stock price (281,500 KRW) close to the upper Bollinger Band (287,632 KRW) suggests potential short-term price resistance. The %b, which indicates the stock's position relative to the band width, is 0.926, showing that the stock price is very close to the upper Bollinger Band.

In a scenario where AI semiconductor demand remains robust and major companies' increased investments lead to actual performance improvements, it is advantageous to observe the overall positive trend in the industry. Particularly, if positive news about new technology development or expansion into front-end industries continues, a hold perspective can be maintained.

In a scenario where global economic recession deepens or AI investment sentiment weakens, leading to a faster-than-expected slowdown in semiconductor demand, risk management is necessary. Furthermore, if major companies' excessive expansion competition leads to actual oversupply and increased price pressure, a reduction in holdings should be considered, keeping in mind the possibility of an overall industry correction.